Top 5 Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

I predicted that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) would close higher on the week. The consumer-tech giant plunged below $400 last week on fears that this week's quarterly report would be a disaster. Guidance for the current quarter is terrible, but an otherwise reasonable fiscal second quarter and Apple's move to beef up its dividend and share buyback helped draw in bargain hunters. The stock soared 6.8% higher. I was right. I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) . This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? Well, the market bounced back this week, and secondary stocks were leading the way. The Nasdaq rose 2.3% on the week. The Dow managed to close just 1.1% higher. I was right. My final call was for Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL  ) to beat Wall Street's quarterly profit target. The leading retailer of hardwood flooring has been growing quickly and making the most of homeowners who are finally feeling comfortable enough to invest in upgrading their digs. Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.42 a share during the quarter, and it came through with adjusted net income of $0.57. I was right.

Three for three? Perfect!

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc(SVNT)

Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing KRYSTEXXA, a biologic PEGylated uricase in the United States. The KRYSTEXXA is being developed as a treatment for chronic gout in patients refractory to conventional therapy. The company also sells and distributes branded and generic versions of oxandrolone, a drug used to promote weight gain following involuntary weight loss. It sells its products directly to drug wholesalers. The company, formerly known as Bio-Technology General Corp. and changed its name to Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in June 2003. Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in East Brunswick, New Jersey.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By James E. Brumley]

  Since 2008's implosion from the stock, the interest in Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:SVNT) has been waning. There was a brief burst of bullishness in September of last year, which stirred the bullish pot a little. But, when SVNT started to fade in October of that year - just as quickly as it had perked up - what lingering hopes there were for the stock finally started to melt away. By the middle of this year, pretty much everyone had written Savient Pharmaceuticals off as a lost cause. Big mistake. Over the last few days, SVNT has almost wiggled its way buck into a bullish zone.

• [By James E. Brumley]

  It's still too soon to say Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:SVNT) is off and running. In fact, the stock's decidedly NOT off and running yet. But, it's not too soon to put SVNT on your watchlist of potential breakout candidates, as it's much closer to a breakout than most anyone can see.

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: PROS Holdings Inc.(PRO)

PROS Holdings, Inc. provides pricing and margin optimization software worldwide. It offers PROS Pricing Solution Suite, a set of integrated software products that enables enterprises to apply pricing and margin optimization science to determine, analyze, and execute optimal pricing strategies through the aggregation and analysis of enterprise application data, transactional data, and market information. The PROS Pricing Solution Suite consists of Scientific Analytics to gain insight into pricing performance; Price Optimizer to institute control of pricing policies; and Deal Optimizer to provide guidelines, additional context, and information to sales force. Its products also include PROS Revenue Management Solution Suite, a suite of industry specific revenue management software products for the enterprises in travel target markets. The PROS Revenue Management Solution Suite comprises PROS Analytics to identify hidden revenue leaks and opportunities, PROS Revenue Management product to manage passenger demand with leg- or segment-based revenue optimization, PROS O&D products to manage passenger demand with passenger name record or PNR based revenue optimization, PROS Real-Time Dynamic Pricing product to determine the optimal prices, PROS Group Revenue Management product to manage group request and booking revenues, PROS Network Revenue Planning product to deliver network-oriented fare class segmentation, PROS Cruise Pricing and Revenue Optimization for customers to understand consumers price sensitivities and track competitor behavior, PROS Hotel Revenue Optimization product that helps customers to enhance pricing decision. In addition, the company provides pricing and implementation professional, and ongoing support and maintenance services. It serves customers in the manufacturing, distribution, services, hotel and cruise, and airline industries primarily through its direct sales force. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Top Casino Companies To Invest In 2014: ViaSat Inc.(VSAT)

ViaSat, Inc. designs, produces, and markets satellite and other wireless communication, and networking systems for government and commercial customers. The company?s Government Systems segment offers network-centric Internet protocol (IP) based government communications systems, including tactical radio and information distribution systems that enable real-time collection and dissemination of video and data using transmission links between command centers, communications nodes, and air defense systems; information security and assurance products, which enable military and government users to communicate information securely over networks, and that secure data stored on computers and storage devices; and government satellite communication systems, such as portable, mobile, and fixed broadband modems, terminals, network access control systems, and antenna systems. The company?s Commercial Networks segment provides various satellite communication systems and ground networki ng equipment. It offers satellite network infrastructure and ground terminals to access high capacity satellites; antenna systems for terrestrial and satellite applications, such as geo-special imagery, mobile satellite communication, Ka-band gateways, and other multi-band antennas; enterprise very small aperture terminal networks and products; and mobile broadband satellite communication systems. This segment also provides satellite networking systems design and technology development, including the analysis, design, and specification of satellites and ground systems, ASIC and MMIC design and production, and wide area network compression for enterprise networks. The company?s Satellite Services segment provides wholesale and retail satellite-based broadband Internet services, as well as managed network services for the satellite communication systems of its consumer, enterprise, and mobile broadband customers. ViaSat, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Carlsb ad, California.

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Cray Inc(CRAY)

Cray Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and service of high-performance computing (HPC) systems, known as supercomputers. Its product line includes Cray XE6 system, a massively parallel processing system; Cray XE6m supercomputer that incorporates its Cray Gemini network; Cray XMT supercomputer, a scalable massively multithreaded platform with a shared memory architecture that is suited for tasks, such as pattern matching, complex searches, scenario development, behavioral prediction, anomaly identification, and graph analysis; and Cray CX1 and CX1000 systems that are purpose-built for laboratories and university departments. The company?s products under development comprise Cray XE6 System enhancements; and next generation Cray XMT System. It also offers engineering services related to HPC systems and solutions, such as maintenance support services and technology-led professional services. Cray Inc. provides its products and services to gover nment agencies, academic institutions, and commercial entities in the United States, Canada, Europe, Japan, and the Asia-Pacific. The company was formerly known as Tera Computer Company and changed its name to Cray Inc. in 2000. Cray Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered Seattle, Washington.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By SA Pro Top Ideas]

  Stock Movers and Great Calls
  Alpha-Rich long and short ideas regularly move stocks and identify stocks that are about to move. Some notable recent calls subscribers had early access to:

  On July 24, Mike Williams explained why FreightCar America's (RAIL) shares could double by 2015 as it returned to historic profitability. Shares are +16.3% to date after a strong earnings report this week. Read article » Vince Martin said on June 17 that Cray's (CRAY) sell-off after Q1 earnings was way overdone, offering investors a great deal. After a strong earnings report last week, shares now stand +45% from where they were before the article. Read article »

  To Come Today
  Don't forget to check your SA Pro dashboard later today for the latest Alpha-Rich ideas. Any thoughts to share on the latest Alpha-Rich ideas? Leave a comment here.
  
  SA Pro Editors
  …............
  
  The SA Pro team is Eli Hoffmann (Editor in Chief), Rachael Granby (Editorial Product Manager), Daniel Shvartsman, Samir Patel, Michael McDonald, and Jeffrey Fischer (Senior Pro Editors). You can reach us at pro-editors@seekingalpha.com.

Top 5 Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Rofin-Sinar Technologies Inc.(RSTI)

Rofin-Sinar Technologies Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, engineering, manufacturing, and marketing of laser-based products worldwide. The company offers laser macro products to machine tool and automotive markets for cutting and welding of metals. It also provides laser marking products to semiconductor and electronics markets for the marking of integrated circuits, wafers, solar cells, electronic components, and smart cards, as well as to automotive markets for the marking of labels and car components. In addition, the company offers laser micro products for fine welding, fine cutting, micro structuring, and drilling applications in medical devices, semiconductor and electronics, photovoltaic, dental, and jewelry markets; and for perforating and scribing of paper and foils in packaging and paper industries. Further, it provides components to laser industry. The company sells its products in approximately 65 countries to original e quipment manufacturers, systems integrators, and industrial end-users. Rofin-Sinar Technologies Inc. was founded in 1975 and is based in Plymouth, Michigan.

Weekend Edition – What Is Happiness?

Throughout my early childhood and teenage years, my dad would share this quote with me time and time again: “Happiness is wanting what you have, not having what you want.” For most of my adolescence I tended to roll my eyes every time he said those words, thinking it was just one of an endless number of aphorisms fathers are known to utter. However, as I got older I started to cherish this quote, believing that it provides a sound basis for anyone and everyone’s lives, both on a financial and emotional level.

Too often we–and when I say we I’m making a sweeping generalization about all consumers–are searching for the newest product or service that we want to buy. We might not need these various consumer goods, but our desire to purchase them is strong for a variety of reasons. But do these purchases make us truly happy? It’s hard to say, but for the most part I’d lean toward saying no.

You Can’t Buy Happiness

Notably and recently, the demand for Apple’s (AAPL) new iPhone 5s had people waiting in lines for hours to purchase a smartphone that they most likely did not need. However, the desire to be socially accepted with the newest product from Apple caused people to wait for hours and fork over hundreds of dollars. Undoubtedly, these individuals could have used their time and money more productively, but the desire to have what they wanted outweighed most rational feelings. In the end, did this equate to happiness? Maybe for a short while, but over the long-term it was probably just another excessive purchase.

As a society, not enough people are content with what they already have, so we go out and spend money on various, and usually unnecessary, consumer goods or expensive vices. Moreover, these things that we tend to desire do not add much long-term value to our lives, whether it is on an emotional, psychological, physiological, or financial level. Sure, you’re happy for a moment following the purchase of whatever product you just bought, but how does it provide you value for years to come?

Yes, I know consumer demand is the crux of our whole economy. Economic growth is essential dependent on people continuously buying products and services – some that they need and many that they want. But that’s beside the point. I’m looking at consumer want on an individual level, in which we can do some introspection to realize that we should be content with the goods we already have. Sure, there are times when we actually need certain goods, at which point we should consume the necessary products and services. However, for all those other desired purchases, maybe it is time to set aside that money you would be potentially spending and invest it, which would provide you with value for years to come. It might not be as sexy as buying a new car, a watch, or a new pair of shoes, but it will lead to the greatest long-term value, and possibly happiness.

J.C.Penney Keeps Slumping; Critics Worry About 2014

J.C. Penney's (JCP) plans to raise almost $1 billion though a public offering hasn't alleviated worries about the struggling department store operator.

What's the issue? Concerns that the company has been burning through cash faster than anyone expected and will keep right on blazing away next year. Or as UBS analyst Michael Binetti writes…

Liquidity Raise Does Not Alleviate Longer-Term Cash Burn Concerns. While an equity raise improves NT liquidity (like the $2.3B loan completed in May'13), we remain concerned that JCP will continue to burn cash in '14 and beyond. In our modest base case '14E recovery scenario (SSS: +5%; GM: +500bp, EBITDA -$40m) we are forecasting -$650m cash burn (assumes $385m int. expense, and capex 55% below Macy's at $300m). We fear JCP could require add'l capital (potentially to fund 2016 ops) until the company can sustainably generate $750M+ to cover cash int. expense + maintenance capex.

Announced late Thursday, the stock offering of 84 million shares was priced at $9.65 per share (a 7.4% discount to Thursday's closing price). And the company says it will have more than $2 billion in cash at year end.

But some Wall Street pros were left scratching their heads. The media had widely reported early Thursday that CEO Mike Ullman didn't see conditions for the rest of the year where the department store chain would need to raise capital.

J.C. Penney has seen some improvement in sales. But critics worry about the road ahead. Earlier this week, the credit research group at Goldman Sachs offered a bearish view of the retailer's prospects, and a Citigroup analysts cut herprice target from $11 to $7. Adding to worries is a downbeat outlook for the broader retail industry.

Brian Sozzi, CEO and chief equities strategist for Balus Capital Advisors, told Stocks to Watch:

All of the signs since August tell you that the company is underperforming and their margins haven't bottomed yet. The concern now is what will happen if these trends continue, and I think they will, as the company enters 2014…You are still looking at a J.C. Penney that is burning through cash and will have no other external ways of raising more. No one expects great holiday sale. In that sort of environment, how will a struggling J.C. Penney do?

Best Blue Chip Companies For 2014

Down more than 9% in Friday afternoon market action, J.C. Penney trades at $9.48.

Finra goes social

Most investment advisers shudder when they think about Finra in relation to social media. They worry about complying with the broker-dealer regulator's guidance on Internet behavior and wonder whether their next Tweet or Facebook post may get them into trouble.

This week, however, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. reminded advisers that it's not just focused on monitoring what others are doing in cyberspace -- it's a participant in social media itself.

On Thursday, I knew that the Finra board was due to make a big decision about a rule on broker-dealer compensation. I checked its website obsessively for any clue about what had transpired. While I was waiting for something to be posted, I scrolled through my Twitter feed – and found the answer I was seeking.

Finra made the board's move known by tweeting a link to its press release. The statement itself didn't hit my inbox until several minutes later. Those of us on Twitter found out first.

I was surprised to get the news this way. But I shouldn't have been. It turns out that Finra was an early adopter. It's been on Twitter for several years – longer than I have, in fact.

In disseminating news from the board meeting, Finra also waded into other aspects of digital media. Within an hour of the board's announcement, it posted a video of Finra chief executive Rick Ketchum and lead governor Jack Brennan discussing the meeting.

It was the second time that Finra used a video to explain board actions. A link was included in the post-meeting e-mail to members.

Like the Securities and Exchange Commission, Finra limits its Twitter activity to putting out links to news releases, investor alerts and speeches. It's using social media as a push technology for widely distributing the message that it wants to send. It's not looking to engage in a conversation with Tweeps, as demonstrated by the fact that it “follows” only four organizations.

Still, it's encouraging that when a major decision like the broker-comp rule came down, Finra didn't tuck it away in a nether region of its website. It made sure that everyone could access background about the development easily. That's pretty good for an organization that is often accused of being opaque.

Marriott COO to Retire in 2014 (MAR)

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) announced on Tuesday that its Chief Operations Officer will retire early next year.

COO Robert J. McCarthy has worked for the hotel company for 38 years and was appointed to his current position in late 2011. In February of 2014, Marriott will give broader responsibilities to several other executives, who will oversee some of McCarthy’s prior responsibilities. Dave Grissen, Stephanie Linnartz, and Bruce Hoffmeister will all be given broader roles within the company.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks To Invest In 2014

Commenting on McCarthy’s retirement, President and CEO Arne Sorenson noted “I am tremendously enthusiastic about our future as these talented executives assume their new responsibilities, building on Bob’s legacy. We all wish Bob and his family the very best”.

Marriott shares traded 0.14% higher during Tuesday’s session. Year-to-date, the stock is up 10.85%.

Commitments of Traders - September 13, 2013

This week's COT data shows non-commercials reducing their net long position in gold and silver, and increasing their net short position in copper; hence the red in the metals group. And non-commercials capital movement in livestock highlights the diverse price action in live cattle and lean hogs.

This RadarScreen capture shows the net change in the net non-commercial position, expressed as a percent of the total non-commercial open interest, in the Commitments of Traders (COT) data released Friday, September 13.

This indicator and more information about COT reports are available in the Analysis Concepts paper titled "Commitments of Traders: Breaking Down the Open Interest." As detailed in the paper, the intention is to follow the money flow of large speculators: money managers, hedge funds, etc.

You can read more of this blog here. Written by Stanley Dash, VP, Applied Technical Analysis, TradeStation. Follow TradeStation

Mortgage REITs: Agency Paper Rejoices in No Taper

It was just about one year ago that QE3 made its debut, and mortgage REITs, particularly agency-only players like Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY  ) , Armour Residential (NYSE: ARR  ) , and American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC  ) began moaning about the increased competition for mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

As the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates began to contract, strangling profits, competition for MBSes also caused prices to rise. Other agency mREITs were nervous, too. CYS Investments (NYSE: CYS  ) noted at the time that QE3 turned the Federal Reserve into the sector's biggest rival for mortgage bonds, and as spreads began to shrink, so did dividends. By December of last year, Annaly, Armour, and Capstead Mortgage (NYSE: CMO  ) had all trimmed their payouts.

Fast forward...
But, that was months ago, and the market has grown accustomed to quantitative easing -- so much so, that just a whiff of anything remotely resembling a tapering of the monthly MBS and bond purchases sent the mREIT sector reeling. When the Fed announced yesterday that the taper will not occur until economic indicators are more favorable to a slow QE3 exit, mREITs responded with exuberance.

Annaly rose by nearly 5% before the market closed yesterday, and American Capital Agency clocked a 5.3% gain. Poor Armour, which has really been getting clobbered lately, saw its share price gain almost 7%. CYS increased by 5.45%, while Capstead logged a lower, but still respectable, hike of nearly 2%.

So, the worst is over, right?
It's wonderful to see the battered sector finally get some investor love, but there is some definite short-sightedness going on here. The FOMC decision is, at best, a reprieve, since QE3 can't go on forever. The pain will return with the FOMC's October meeting, as analysts and investors await the meeting minutes to arrive in November. Then, just as occurred when the July minutes were released last month, everyone will scour the report for the slightest hint of taper talk.

By the time the December meeting comes around, complete with a summary of the committee's take on the economy and a press conference, markets will be in a lather again. No doubt, mortgage REITs will have jumped back on the roller coaster long before the FOMC's last meeting of the year.

For the long-term mREIT investor, times will be tough, but there is a silver lining, here: Buying on the dip becomes much easier. Savvy investors who monitor taper talk and keep an eye on share prices should be able to pick up some sweet deals the next time the Nervous Nellies spring into action.

The long-term view is still the best
Dividend stocks can make you rich. It's as simple as that. While they don't garner the notoriety of high-flying growth stocks, they're also less likely to crash and burn. And over the long term, the compounding effect of the quarterly payouts, as well as their growth, adds up faster than most investors imagine. With this in mind, our analysts sat down to identify the absolute best of the best when it comes to rock-solid dividend stocks, drawing up a list in this free report of nine that fit the bill. To discover the identities of these companies before the rest of the market catches on, you can download this valuable free report by simply clicking here now.

Mortgage Loan Rates Keep Lid on Home Refinancing

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its weekly report on mortgage applications this morning, noting a slight increase of 0.2% in the group's seasonally adjusted composite index following a drop of 3.7% for the previous week. Mortgage loan rates showed little change last week.

The seasonally adjusted purchase index increased by 1% from the last report. On an unadjusted basis, the composite index was unchanged week-over-week. The unadjusted purchase index also increased by 1% for the week, and is up about 8% year-over-year.

The MBA's refinance index was unchanged after sliding 1% in the previous week.

The share of refinancings remained unchanged again at 63%, its lowest level in more than two years. Adjustable rate mortgage loans account for 6% of all applications, flat with the prior week.

The average mortgage loan rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained increased from 4.58% to 4.61%. The rate for a jumbo 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was unchanged at 4.64%. The average interest rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 3.67% to 3.66%.

The contract interest rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage loan remained unchanged at 3.39%.

With so little change from a week ago, it is only worth noting that refinancings continue at low levels when compared with the past two years. Unless interest rates make an unlikely move lower, refinancings should remain soft.

Can Toyota Motor Put the Pedal to the Metal?

With shares of Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) trading around $120, is TM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Toyota Motor is a Japan-based company mainly engaged in the automobile business and financial business. The company operates through three business segments: Automobile, Finance, and Others. Through its segments, Toyota Motor designs, manufactures, and sells vehicles as well as related parts and accessories; offers financial services related to the sale of its products; and is involved in the design, manufacture, and sale of housing, information, and communication businesses. Vehicles and related products are seeing increased innovation and Toyota Motor is at the head of this trend. Toyota has been dominating the competition and has been first to provide new technologies so look for this to continue.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Toyota Motor stock has been on a path to higher prices since establishing lows during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The stock has recently broken-out and is now trading at all-time high prices. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Toyota Motor is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Toyota Motor options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Toyota Motor Options	29.23%	93%	90%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
June Options	Flat	Average
July Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Toyota Motor’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Toyota Motor look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q1	2012 Q4	2012 Q3	2012 Q2
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	24.31%	9.73%	213.19%	25.31%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	17.73%	7.96%	10.13%	12.75%
Earnings Reaction	3.12%	1.04%	4.36%	4.97%

Toyota Motor has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have been very pleased with Toyota Motor’s recent earnings announcements.

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P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Toyota Motor stock done relative to its peers, General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford Motor (NYSE:F), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA), and sector?

	Toyota Motor	General Motors	Ford Motor	Tesla Motors	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	33.69%	13.93%	15.60%	174.30%	19.33%

Toyota Motor has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Toyota Motor provides innovative vehicles and related products to consumers and companies worldwide. The stock has been in an explosive run over the last several years and is now trading at all-time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue have increased at excellent rates that have really pleased investors. Relative to its peers and sector, Toyota Motor has been one of the year-to-date performance leader. Look for Toyota Motor to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Can Adobe Beat Out the Competition?

With shares of Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) trading around $45, is ADBE an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Adobe operates as a diversified software company worldwide. It offers a line of software and services used by creative professionals, marketers, knowledge workers, application developers, enterprises, and consumers. Adobe markets and licenses its software directly to enterprise customers through its sales force and to end users through application stores and its website at www.adobe.com. Software products and platforms are seeing an increased adoption rate worldwide by consumers and businesses who are seeing increased technology exposure. The efficiency and ease offered by Adobe products make it a viable option to many. Look for Adobe to see rising profits their products make their way into homes and businesses around the world.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Adobe stock been climbing higher over the last year or so. The stock is now trading at a critical price level where a move in either direction can be very decisive for its future. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Adobe is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Adobe options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Adobe Options	24.45%	0%	0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
July Options	Flat	Average
August Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Adobe’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Adobe look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q1	2012 Q4	2012 Q3	2012 Q2
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	-64.86%	26.03%	2.56%	0.00%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	-3.57%	0.11%	6.65%	9.90%
Earnings Reaction	4.19%	5.71%	4.25%	-2.73%

Adobe has seen improving earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Adobe’s recent earnings announcements.

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P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Adobe stock done relative to its peers, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), and sector?

	Adobe	Apple	Microsoft	Oracle	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	21.47%	-20.39%	28.87%	2.31%	15.39%

Adobe has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Adobe provides valuable software products and services to a wide range of companies and consumers operating in diversified industries worldwide. The stock has seen a strong run over the last year and is now trading at critical price levels. Over the four quarters, investors have been pleased with Adobe’s improving earnings and revenue figures. Relative to its peers and sector, Adobe has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Adobe to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Closing Bell for Monday on Wall Street: Markets Open Mixed, Fade to Lower Close

August 19, 2013: U.S. equity markets opened mixed this morning as the Nasdaq eked out a positive start. The rocky start to the week is being attributed to rising 10-year Treasury yields which hit 2.87% before markets opened this morning. There was no notable U.S. economic data released today, and relatively little released elsewhere. In Asia, house prices rose 7.5% in China and Japan reported a higher-than-expected trade deficit. In Europe, Germany's house price index slipped 0.3% month-over-month. The rising long-term interest rate kept stocks down today.

The U.S. dollar index is trading lower today, now down 0.04% at 81.2210. The GSCI commodity index is up 0.2% at 649.92. WTI crude oil closed down 0.36% today, at $107.10 a barrel. Brent crude trades down 0.4% at $119.91 a barrel. Natural gas is up 2.7% today at about $3.46 per million BTUs. Gold for December delivery settled down 0.4% today at $1,365.70 an ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 71 points to15,010.74 (-0.47%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 14 points (-0.38%) to 3,589.09, and the S&P 500 fell -0.59% or nearly 10 points to 1,646.05.

There were a several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including:

RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) has been dropped from coverage by Oppenheimer; Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) raised to 'neutral' at Piper Jaffray; Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) cut to 'hold' at Stifel Nicolaus; Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU) raised to 'buy' with a price target of $80 at Sterne Agee; and Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG) raised to 'overweight' at J.P. Morgan.

The only earnings reports of note since last Friday came from Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) which is trading down 0.2% at $15.99.

Before markets open Tuesday morning we are scheduled to hear results from Perfect World Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: PWRD), Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN), Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) which announced a new video app today, Best Buy Co. Inc (NYSE: BBY) which is included in our preview of this week's results from retailers, Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP), and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL).

Some standouts among heavily traded stocks today include:

GTX Inc. (NASDAQ: GTXI) is down 66.9% at $1.38 after posting a new 52-week low of $1.31 earlier today. The biopharmaceutical maker's shares collapsed on news of a failed trial for its muscle drug.

Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: HNR) is up 17.3% at $4.62. The independent oil & gas company received an upgrade today based on the belief that company can sell some of its foreign assets.

Cobalt International Energy Inc. (NYSE: CIE) is down 14.3% at $25.18. The independent oil & gas company reported a dry hole in one of its Gulf of Mexico wells.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Chicago Fed national activity index
11:00 a.m. – 4- and 52-week bill auctions

Cities with the Most Expensive Gas

As we head into Labor Day weekend, gasoline prices nationally are down about 21 cents a gallon from last year to around $3.57 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.com. Marking the traditional end of the summer driving season, next week's holiday presents a good opportunity to look at gas prices around the country.

An unanticipated closure of an East Coast refinery sent prices soaring to a year-to-date high by mid-February. Gasoline prices have fluctuated since then, but have been trending slowly downward. Prices in some cities remain exceptionally high, however, at least 25 cents more than the national price. Gas in Honolulu as of earlier this week averaged $4.23 per gallon. These are the cities with the most expensive gas.

Click here to see the 10 cities

Americans are driving less and as newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles replace older ones in the country's fleet, demand is also decreasing. The main reason that crude oil and gas prices remain high is uncertainty about the future availability of crude. Events in the Middle East, the source of more than a third of the world's supply of crude, figure heavily in market prices for crude and eventually gasoline. The threat of military action in Syria has driven up crude and gas prices since late Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for October delivery trading near $109 a barrel on Tuesday.

In the nine cities with the highest gas prices, four of the cities are on the East Coast, two are in California, and there is one each in Alaska, Hawaii, and Idaho. The concentration of cities on the East Coast is due to a variety of reasons, the most important of which is that Northeast refineries obtain most of their crude oil from non-U.S. sources, raising the cost of refined products and ultimately the price for consumers. Gregg Laskoski, senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.com points out, "for a long time the Northeast has had to rely on Brent crude oil, which has to come across the ocean from Europe."

Many of these cities are also in states with much higher taxes driving up rates. Connecticut, California, Hawaii, and New York – where all but two of these cities are located — all have among the highest state taxes in the country. "There are regions of the country where it is almost a given that gas prices are going to be higher simply because taxes are higher," explained Laskoski.

These are also among the most expensive cities in the country to to live in. As of the beginning of this year, New York City, Honolulu, and San Francisco, all of which have among the highest gas prices, had the highest overall cost of living. This is likely not a coincidence, explained Laskoski. "where you have affluent markets, you're going to have retailers that are going to push their prices to a level that they think the market will bear."

Using GasBuddy.com's list of cities with high gas prices, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the nine cities with the highest gas prices as of August 25. Those numbers are regularly updated, and may have changed since then. 24/7 Wall St. also reviewed city cost-of-living data from the Council for Community and Economic Research as of the first quarter of 2013. We also considered state gas prices, also as of August 25, from AAA's daily fuel gauge report. Current and historical gas prices come from data at GasBuddy.com, and gas tax data comes from the quarterly review of state gas taxes from the American Petroleum Institute.

Is Chevron or Johnson & Johnson’s Dividend Superior?

Dividend stocks are always attractive to investors, but finding the next company to add to a portfolio is tricky. What makes a dividend stock worth the money, and which company has the largest potential for growth? Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is one of the most respected businesses trading today, while oil giant Chevron (NYSE:CVX) maintains its commanding position in the top three of the Fortune 500 list. Is there a clear advantage to one of these dividend stocks?

Both Companies Are Regularly Increasing Dividend Payments

Investors looking at dividend stocks expect payouts to come without fail, but it’s important to analyze the growth of the payment itself. In the case of Johnson & Johnson, the company is in the elite category of Dividend Aristocrat, a sobriquet applied to stocks that have increased payments for 25 years or longer. J&J has doubled the mark, increasing payouts every year for 50 years straight. That’s impossible to beat.

While it does not have a record quite as impressive, Chevron did become part of the Dividend Aristocrat club in 2013, when it increased its payout for the twenty-fifth consecutive year. On the topic of dividend yield, Chevron has more to bring the table than Johnson & Johnson, for the sake of this argument.

Chevron’s Yield Reflects an Advantage

In the case of dividend yield percentage, both companies have projected strength in recent years. Johnson & Johnson was the better performer of the two until earlier this year, when Chevron surpassed the drugmaker-healthcare conglomerate for the first time since 2011. As of now, the Chevron yield is superior.

Capital Investments, and Their Impact on Dividend Payouts

Choosing an investment based solely on attractive payouts is not a wise long-term strategy. Finding a dividend stock that strikes a balance between payouts and investments in its own business is preferable. Chevron has been paying out a slightly higher percentage in the past years. However, both companies have promising investments in the works.

For Chevron, the move is in liquified natural gas (aka LNG), as well as shale reserves in Africa and South America. Natural gas appears to have strong future in the energy sector, and the oil giant is well positioned to take advantage. Johnson & Johnson, for its part, has invested in diabetes and anti-TB drugs that will make it to market soon. Its reach in the healthcare sector continues to grow.

Government regulation of the natural gas industry could have an impact on Chevron, even more than the FDA’s effect on J&J’s pharmaceutical business, so investors should keep that in mind when choosing a dividend stock. Beyond that, it’s hard to argue with the choice of either top company.

Don’t Miss: What Is Unrest in Egypt Doing to Oil Prices?

Best Cheap Stocks To Own Right Now

It's not just small Windows RT-based tablets that are getting cheaper. Small tablets running the more full-featured Windows 8 are also now seeing their value propositions improve.

Sources told Bloomberg earlier this week that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) is slashing licensing fees to manufacturers of small Windows RT devices, and now a Microsoft executive is confirming the discount across both operating systems.

Nick Parker -- VP of Microsoft's OEM division -- also says that the discount program will come with free Microsoft Office software. It will be up to the manufacturers to decide if they want to include Word, Excel, OneNote, and PowerPoint in their tablets -- no Outlook -- and it's hard to see them passing up on the offer.

This explains why the first 8-inch Windows 8 tablet -- Acer's Iconia W3 -- is set to hit the market at a refreshingly reasonable $379 price point.

Best Cheap Stocks To Own Right Now: Hologic Inc.(HOLX)

Hologic Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostic, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for the healthcare needs of women. The company operates in four segments: Breast Health, Diagnostics, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. The Breast Health segment offers breast imaging products, such as Selenia full field digital mammography system, breast tomosynthesis, healthcome mammography products, screen-film mammography systems, SecurView workstation, CAD systems, stereotactic breast biopsy systems, breast biopsy products, breast brachytherapy products, MammoPad breast cushions, and photoconductor coatings, as well as Sentinelle medical MRI breast coils and workstations. This segment also develops a breast imaging platform, Dimensions, which utilizes a tomosynthesis technology to produce 3D images. The Diagnostics segment provides ThinPrep system, a solution for cervical cancer screening; rapid fetal fibronectin test for pre-term birth risk assessment; and hu man papillomavirus offering and InVitro diagnostics for cervical cancer tests. The GYN Surgical segment offers NovaSure system, a minimally-invasive procedure that allows physicians to treat women suffering from excessive menstrual bleeding; MyoSure system for the hysteroscopic removal of fibroids; and Adiana system, a form of permanent female contraception intended as an alternative to tubal ligation. The Skeletal Health segment provides QDR X-Ray bone densitometers that assess the bone density of fracture sites; Sahara clinical bone sonometers, which assess the bone density of heels; and Mini C-Arm imaging systems that are used to perform minimally invasive surgical procedures on a patient?s extremities. Hologic Inc. sells its products through a combination of direct sales and service forces, a network of independent distributors, and sales representatives primarily in the United States, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

Best Cheap Stocks To Own Right Now: Pitney Bowes Inc(PBI)

Pitney Bowes Inc. provides mail processing equipment and integrated mail solutions worldwide. It offers a suite of equipment, supplies, software, services, and solutions for managing and integrating physical and digital communication channels. The company?s Small & Medium Business Solutions group engages in the sale, rental, and financing of mail finishing, mail creation, and shipping equipment and software; provision of supply, support, and other professional services; and provision of payment solutions. Its Enterprise Business Solutions group sells, supports, and offers other professional services for high-speed production mail systems, and sorting and production print equipment; and sells and provides support services for non-equipment-based mailing, customer relationship and communication, and location intelligence software. This group also offers facilities management services; secure mail services; reprographic document management services; and litigation support and eDiscovery services, as well as provides presort mail services and cross-border mail services; and direct marketing services. Pitney Bowes Inc. markets its products and services through its sales force, direct mailings, outbound telemarketing, and independent distributors and dealers to various business, governmental, institutional, and other organizations. The company, formerly known as Pitney Bowes Postage Meter Company, was founded in 1920 and headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jim Lowell]

  Pitney Bowes (PBI) provides mail processing equipment and integrated mail solutions in the United States and internationally. The company is a member of the dividend aristocrats index and has raised distributions for 29 years in a row. Yield: 5.90%.

Hot High Tech Companies To Watch For 2014: Cliffmont Resources Ltd. (CMO.V)

Cliffmont Resources Ltd., a junior resource company, engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties in Colombia. The company focuses on precious and base metal properties. It holds an interest in the San Luis gold project that covers approximately 2,701 hectares in Huila, Colombia. The company was formerly known as Atlas Minerals Inc. and changed its name to Cliffmont Resources Ltd. in February 2010. Cliffmont Resources Ltd. is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Estimates or Guesstimates?

5 Best Financial Stocks To Watch Right Now

1. Clustering: It is remarkable that there is hardly any difference in the estimates which are made prior to the results, irrespective of whether it is a globally reputed brokerage house or a hole-in-the-wall broking outfit. My guess is that the larger ones base their estimates on the figures given out by the managements during 'closed-door' meetings, as well as the periodic 'guidance' given by them. The smaller ones simply piggyback on the larger brokers' estimates and pass them off as their own. In either case, there may not much analysis involved.

2. Variance: Often there is a significant variance between the estimates and the actual figures. Sometimes, even the direction of the actual results is not the same as that estimated. So much so, that in the USA, there is an indicator known as the "Earnings Surprise Indicator" which measures the variance of the variance. Confused….Well, you are not the only one.
To me, the whole exercise is quite absurd. I mean, in most firms each analyst tracks three to four sectors. Now, each of these will have a couple of humungous companies / conglomerates involved in a diverse range of activities. Given the number of moving parts, I think even the managements of these companies know that it is futile to indulge in quarterly predictions. However, the analyst at the brokerage house (who is often a multitasker and not an industry specialist) apparently can do what the top management of the company dare not, i.e. give precise predictions.

I also wonder who really tracks and believes these estimates. Seasoned investors may not even look at them as they have proved to be wrong on too many occasions. Maybe the media is more keen on knowing these numbers more than anyone else.

I am happy to see that some companies are desisting from providing quarterly guidance, as they believe that this practice encourages short-termism. If this trend gathers momentum, then, maybe, analysts will have to begin analysing and not merely reporting….

- Jayant Pai
(The author is the Head Marketing, PPFAS Mutual Fund)

Ultrawealthy Investors Favor Stocks, Focus on Growth in 2013

Ultra-affluent members of the Institute for Private Investors are bullish on equity markets and focused on growth rather than merely preserving capital, according to a survey released Thursday.

IPI said 69 families with assets of at least $30 million participated in its annual Family Performance Tracking survey during the second quarter.

Sixty-three percent of respondents said they planned to increase their allocation to global equities in 2013, and 53% planned to increase positions in domestic equities.    

Growth is the primary objective of 51% of survey respondents in 2013, compared with 47% in last year’s survey, while 36% aim for principal protection, versus 43% in 2012, and 13% look for income, compared with 10% last year.

Best Stocks To Buy For 2014

Wealthy investors enjoyed positive returns in 2012, according to the survey. The average return net of fees was 10.1%, up from 0.6% in 2011. 

Domestic equities accounted for an average 2012 portfolio allocation of 18%, global equities 14%, taxable bonds 10%, municipals 7%, hedge funds and/or funds of funds 18%, private equity 10%, real estate direct investment 6%, commodities 5%, venture capital 2%, direct investments in private companies 2% and other 1%.

The survey showed that investors were more opportunistic. Sixty-nine percent said they had changed their asset allocation based on favorable market conditions in a particular asset class, while 57% had reallocated because of a shift in overall performance expectations and 52% owing to poor performance of a particular asset class.

The end of 2012 was marked by heightened uncertainty about taxes. Respondents most commonly realized capital gains by year-end and either created or altered estate planning vehicles.  

To manage taxes on an ongoing basis, 62% of private investors planned to rely on tax loss harvesting, 47% on asset allocation and 41% on family limited partnerships. 

Thirty-nine percent of respondents sought tax counsel from their accountants, 26% from lawyers and 24% from investment advisors.

Other findings:

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